Headlines:

• Policy rates: Buyers aren't expecting a rate cut after the Bank of Canada held rates five times straight. Update: Aug. 8, 2026 -- Fed President Neel Kashkari says higher interest rates needed to bring down inflation vs 3 dissenting voices at the U.S. Federal Reserve. Since Canada's interest rates tend to track with the U.S.'s, this is worth watching. (Cnbc.com)

• BC rental supply: The Canadian government bought over 2,200 unsold condos in Vancouver to convert them into affordable housing, leading to higher rental supply in the Metro Vancouver area.

• Vancouver condos: Nearly 4,400 completed condos are sitting empty, up 76% from last year, meaning a supply glut is on the horizon, if not here already.

• Short term rentals: STRs came back in Kelowna officially for investors as of June 1st, 2026 due to our vacancy rate increasing from from 1.2% lows to ~7%.
• The Speculation and Vacancy Tax: Doubled in 2026 for non-exempt properties, increasing from 0.5% to 1% for Canadian citizens and from 2% to 3% for foreign owners and untaxed international earners.
• , letting buyers know... that the market in BC is changing for buyers who view housing as a park and play investment opportunity. 
• Balanced market: In March 2026, for the first time in 23 months, houses, condos, and townhomes in the Central Okanagan all landed in balanced market territory with 7 months of inventory, compared to 11 last year.

Headlines:

Price Segments

The higher you go up in price, the stronger the market is getting, with properties over $3 million showing the highest increase in sales numbers by mid-2026.

Above $1M: down 7.5% | Above $2M: up 5% | Above $3M: up 53%

Property Types

Across the board, we’re seeing apartment sales increase, while townhomes and single family sales have both declined year over year.

Apartment sales: up 7% | Townhome sales: down 6.5% | Single-family homes: down 5%

Mortgage Renewals

This year, about 1.15 million Canadian mortgages will renew at a policy rate of 2.25% (held on July 15, 2026), many of which were locked in at 1.5 to 2% during the pandemic years. While this will present a payment shock to many borrowers, it’s not a disaster; mortgage arrears are only 0.25% in Canada.

5 Factors Impacting Kelowna’s Real Estate Market in 2026

1. Rates held steady all year, some banks suggesting rates might move up due to oil prices overseas.
2. Canada is technically in a recession alongside shrinking population figures and lower immigration, a policy meant to ease the pressure on housing.
3. Fewer immigrants are entering Canada and BC with a rebuilt policy seeking healthcare workers, skilled trades, and high-income earners.
4. The stock market is trading at record highs with the Dow and S&P 500 at record numbers.
5. Kelowna’s market is not like Vancouver’s; condo sales are up 25% in a single month and days to sell are dropping fast.

Our Take Heading Into Fall 2026

Supply & Demand

Supply is tight and rates aren’t dropping, but the buyers we do have in Kelowna, BC are financially stronger than before. Prices expected to hold firm as supply and demand factors balance out with ~7 months of inventory in Central Okanagan real estate.

Condo Markets in BC

The condos market across BC is worth keeping an eye on as a harbinger of what's to come for the rest of the market. This is a segment that could surprise many people as the calendar turns to 2027. Like Toronto, the condo market is often the first place to display signs of distress and broad market change factors.

Policy Rate Factors

Geo political factors with the war in Iran could impact policy rates. If war breaks out hard again and oil prices rise, we could see a fast spike in interest rates. The mortgage renewal wave in Canada is not over; we’re watching it this year and next year to help buyers and sellers understand the best times to move ahead with plans.

Tight Supply Factors

While condo markets are taking a breath in Vancouver and Toronto, tight supply elsewhere due to a constrained pipeline of new ownership housing is keeping markets constrained. With days to sell at 60, a benchmark price of $781,700, and new listings down 15.0% from last year, 2026 is proving to be a tight market with balanced conditions that we haven't seen in years.

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